Whether you’ve been around the sports betting game for a while, or are new and have been following the advice found on this site, chances are you’ve been to sites like Covers.com while doing research on upcoming games. Chances are you have also noticed the little « consensus » tidbit next to each game, telling you which team the public thinks will win. You could see that a team has a 70% public opinion and feel like which may be a fairly good bet for you to make. While nothing is ever certain on this planet of sports betting, this feeling will be incorrect.

One of the most important concepts to take into account when betting on sports is this: in the event the public won more than they lost, sports books would cease to exist. Which is simplifying things a little, simply, but generally that is a true statement. Casinos and sport books are within business to make money–lots of money. Whenever they are losing money in a particular area, they will either change the rules or stop offering it entirely. Considering that the world of online sport books is alive and thriving, it is then safe to assume that they can be making money and that, over time, the general public loses their cash.

I have been telling people to subscribe to the theory of reverse public opinion for years now. As will be the case with a lot of the advice I’ve offered here at SportBooksReview, I’m not suggesting that people blindly bet against the team with higher public support every night–just keep it in mind when doing your research. There are some situations where observing the general public consensus and comparing it to line movement can be very eye-opening, and these are the situations the place you can pounce.

Once we discussed in our Line Movement article, there are numerous of factors that could cause sport books to move the line. One such factor is just one team getting decidedly more income wagered on it than the other, creating a scenario where the books would lose a sizable amount of money if one team wins. Books would prefer to have an excellent, even amount of cash bet on both sides of a game, in order that regardless of which team wins, they will come out on top as a result of the juice (newbies: betting $110 to win $100, the $10 is the juice). This really is why it is a wise decision to take a quick peek at the consensus percentages as well as the line movement for the games you want to bet on–there can sometimes be some very useful hidden information to give you a benefit.

When doing your research, if you happen to see a game where the public is very heavily betting on one team, say 70% or higher, yet the line did not move from it’s original number, then you have to ask yourself why that is. Should Read the Full Article public is betting most of their cash on a team, though the books don’t move the number to attract betters for the other team, then it’s telling you something. Either the books are confident that the public will lose, or even the big-money sharp betters have already made their bets on the other team. Either way, this really is a major red flag. Again, do not blindly bet your money on this strategy, but there will be situations where these numbers are too strong to ignore.

By and large, I like fading the public–especially when there is a strong public consensus betting on the underdog in a game. As you surely already know, the common theme of my articles is research–we’re speaking about your money here, so it’s extremely crucial that you make every effort to find one benefit prior to making your bet. As is the case with a whole lot of my advice, this isn’t meant to be a universal strategy, but part of a larger overall strategy of doing your homework and eventually finding solid money-making opportunities. If you follow the advice I have offered in this particular article and combine it with some of my other strategies, you will win money–the only question is: just how much?